Thursday, January 14, 2010

Working with Causal Loop Diagrams


Working with Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD) is interesting and maybe even fun... But preparing a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) from scratch is actually quite difficult.
Getting started on the right path was not easy. But finally, after a few rough drafts and scrapped CLDs, and I had my diagram.


The situation I chose to model is one focused on an aspect of social dynamics, namely the goal to be a desirable friend. Generally, an individual would aim to please others in effort to increase his social utility. As social utility increases, he becomes more popular and more of his time is demanded by others. This results in less available time, and as the individual has less time available, his desire to please and to be agreeable decreases.

The unintended consequences however create a sc
enario where an individual can end up as a loner instead of a person with a full social schedule. As an individual increases his desire to please those around him, he may actually end up increasing his indecisiveness and indifference because he is more concerned with seeming agreeable than actually forming an opinion or making a decision. As a result, frustration among friends increases, thereby decreasing his popularity, freeing up his social schedule (available time), which ultimately further increases his desire to please those around him.

The mental model is inadequate because it leaves out a number of other variables which influence social behavior and dynamics, such as the number of other people this person is trying to satisfy, the state of mental health of the individual, and opportunities for socializing. There may be a need for delays in this model, depending on circumstances. For example, it make take a long while for this person's indecisiveness to result
in feelings of frustration among his friends.

I know this model can be better... even as I've been writing this blog, I've rethought several of my variable names and causal relationships. But, this is where you come in... what are your thoughts? How can this model be improved? What glaring issues have I missed? Click on the image for a closer look at the diagram.






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